Sweepstake Odds
50,000 simulationsDecimal odds for each player to top the sweepstake table at the end of the tournament, based on 50,000 Monte Carlo simulated tournaments seeded with 12 completed group matches. Arrows compare to the snapshot from 14 Jun.
| # | Player | Odds | P(win) | P(top 3) | E[pts] | P(owns winner) | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Richard | 5.00 | 20.0% | 47.9% | 85.8 | 19.8% | – 0 |
| 2 | Nichola | 5.04 | 19.9% | 50.6% | 87.6 | 19.1% | ▲ +0.8pp |
| 3 | Ella | 5.56 | 18.0% | 40.1% | 78.9 | 19.4% | ▼ -1.2pp |
| 4 | Henry | 9.13 | 11.0% | 30.6% | 70.5 | 11.9% | – 0 |
| 5 | Emily | 12.66 | 7.9% | 34.5% | 75.2 | 7.3% | ▲ +0.6pp |
| 6 | Sophie | 12.78 | 7.8% | 36.3% | 76.2 | 7.1% | – 0 |
| 7 | Pete | 12.86 | 7.8% | 30.0% | 71.9 | 7.7% | – 0 |
| 8 | Tega | 13.00 | 7.7% | 29.9% | 71.3 | 7.7% | ▼ -0.3pp |
Team Odds
48 teams, by chance of winning the World Cup| # | Country | Grp | FIFA | Owner | Odds | P(QF) | P(SF) | P(F) | P(W) | E[pts] | Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Spain | H | 2 | Ella | 5.67 | 58.8% | 41.5% | 27.8% | 17.6% | 36.6 | – |
| 2 |  France | I | 1 | Nichola | 5.77 | 58.0% | 40.9% | 27.5% | 17.3% | 35.7 | ▼ |
| 3 |  Argentina | J | 3 | Richard | 5.80 | 58.4% | 41.0% | 27.4% | 17.2% | 36.1 | – |
| 4 |  England | L | 4 | Henry | 9.62 | 49.4% | 31.6% | 18.9% | 10.4% | 29.6 | – |
| 5 |  Brazil | C | 6 | Emily | 21.62 | 39.1% | 21.1% | 10.4% | 4.6% | 23.0 | – |
| 6 |  Portugal | K | 5 | Sophie | 21.67 | 37.6% | 20.8% | 10.2% | 4.6% | 22.9 | – |
| 7 |  Morocco | C | 7 | Tega | 22.73 | 37.8% | 20.3% | 9.9% | 4.4% | 22.6 | – |
| 8 |  Netherlands | F | 8 | Pete | 24.95 | 35.1% | 18.7% | 9.1% | 4.0% | 21.0 | – |
| 9 |  Belgium | G | 9 | Pete | 30.14 | 34.6% | 17.4% | 7.9% | 3.3% | 21.7 | – |
| 10 |  Germany | E | 10 | Tega | 34.20 | 34.2% | 17.2% | 7.7% | 2.9% | 22.0 | – |
| 11 |  Croatia | L | 11 | Sophie | 46.73 | 28.6% | 13.8% | 5.7% | 2.1% | 18.4 | – |
| 12 |  Colombia | K | 13 | Emily | 58.21 | 26.2% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 17.3 | – |
| 13 |  Mexico | A | 15 | Richard | 59.59 | 26.9% | 11.8% | 4.7% | 1.7% | 19.3 | – |
| 14 |  United States | D | 16 | Ella | 73.75 | 25.7% | 10.7% | 4.1% | 1.4% | 18.4 | – |
| 15 |  Senegal | I | 14 | Henry | 76.22 | 23.0% | 10.2% | 3.9% | 1.3% | 15.4 | – |
| 16 |  Uruguay | H | 17 | Nichola | 81.57 | 23.8% | 10.0% | 3.7% | 1.2% | 16.5 | – |
| 17 |  Japan | F | 18 | Emily | 116 | 20.6% | 8.3% | 3.0% | 0.9% | 15.0 | – |
| 18 |  Switzerland | B | 19 | Richard | 119 | 20.3% | 8.0% | 2.7% | 0.8% | 14.9 | – |
| 19 |  Iran | G | 21 | Nichola | 209 | 16.2% | 5.5% | 1.7% | 0.5% | 13.8 | – |
| 20 |  Ecuador | E | 24 | Ella | 338 | 12.0% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 10.2 | – |
| 21 |  Austria | J | 23 | Tega | 400 | 11.9% | 3.8% | 1.0% | 0.3% | 11.1 | – |
| 22 |  South Korea | A | 25 | Pete | 407 | 14.7% | 4.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 14.8 | – |
| 23 |  Australia | D | 27 | Sophie | 459 | 13.4% | 4.0% | 1.0% | 0.2% | 14.1 | – |
| 24 |  Algeria | J | 28 | Sophie | 694 | 9.2% | 2.6% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 9.7 | – |
| 25 |  Türkiye | D | 22 | Henry | 781 | 8.1% | 2.6% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 7.5 | – |
| 26 |  Egypt | G | 29 | Ella | 794 | 10.3% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.1% | 11.2 | – |
| 27 |  Canada | B | 30 | Henry | 877 | 8.6% | 2.4% | 0.6% | 0.1% | 9.7 | – |
| 28 |  Ivory Coast | E | 34 | Emily | — | 9.9% | 2.5% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 13.6 | – |
| 29 |  Norway | I | 31 | Pete | — | 6.6% | 1.7% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 7.6 | – |
| 30 |  Sweden | F | 38 | Nichola | — | 8.0% | 1.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 11.6 | – |
| 31 |  Panama | L | 33 | Tega | — | 6.5% | 1.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% | 8.2 | – |
| 32 |  Czechia | A | 41 | Tega | — | 3.9% | 0.9% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 5.9 | – |
| 33 |  Scotland | C | 43 | Richard | — | 5.5% | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 9.3 | – |
| 34 |  Qatar | B | 55 | Sophie | — | 3.4% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 8.0 | – |
| 35 |  Congo DR | K | 45 | Pete | — | 2.7% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 5.5 | – |
| 36 |  Paraguay | D | 40 | Richard | — | 2.2% | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 4.2 | – |
| 37 |  Tunisia | F | 46 | Ella | — | 0.7% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.0 | – |
| 38 |  Iraq | I | 57 | Emily | — | 1.2% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.4 | – |
| 39 |  Uzbekistan | K | 50 | Nichola | — | 1.9% | 0.3% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 4.8 | – |
| 40 |  South Africa | A | 60 | Henry | — | 1.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.7 | – |
| 41 |  Bosnia-Herzegovina | B | 64 | Nichola | — | 1.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 5.2 | – |
| 42 |  Haiti | C | 82 | Ella | — | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.5 | – |
| 43 |  Curaçao | E | 83 | Pete | — | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.4 | – |
| 44 |  New Zealand | G | 85 | Tega | — | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.5 | – |
| 45 |  Cape Verde | H | 68 | Sophie | — | 0.5% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 3.1 | – |
| 46 |  Saudi Arabia | H | 61 | Henry | — | 1.3% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 4.5 | – |
| 47 |  Jordan | J | 63 | Emily | — | 0.5% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 2.8 | – |
| 48 |  Ghana | L | 73 | Richard | — | 0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 1.9 | – |
Methodology
For every remaining group fixture the model draws a result from a Poisson goals distribution scaled by the gap in FIFA points between the two teams (same approach as the calibration sim that picked the 80-point champion bonus). Completed matches stay as they happened.
After the group stage the top two of each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance. The knockout bracket is drawn at random in each simulation - once ESPN publishes the official bracket post-group-stage we'll swap that in, which will tighten the favourites' odds.
Each player's score in each simulation is their six teams' group points plus the cumulative progression bonus of the deepest stage each team reached. Probabilities, expected points and decimal odds come from aggregating across all simulations. Arrows show the change since the most recent dated snapshot, rounded to the nearest 0.3 percentage points to keep sampling noise from flickering them.