For every remaining group fixture the model draws a result from a Poisson goals distribution scaled by the gap in World Football Elo Ratings between the two teams (refreshed daily). Completed matches stay as they happened. Elo is purpose-built for outcome prediction and accounts for recent form, so teams like England, Colombia and Norway score more realistically than under the FIFA points used in earlier versions of this model.

After the group stage the top two of each group plus the eight best third-placed teams advance. The model uses the official knockout bracket as soon as ESPN publishes each round's fixtures: those pairings are honoured exactly, and only rounds whose participants aren't yet decided are drawn at random. As the bracket fills in, the favourites' odds tighten.

Each player's score in each simulation is their six teams' group points plus the cumulative progression bonus of the deepest stage each team reached. Probabilities, expected points and decimal odds come from aggregating across all simulations. Arrows show the change since the most recent dated snapshot, rounded to the nearest 0.3 percentage points to keep sampling noise from flickering them.

Finish (80%) is a confidence range on the final table place: every simulation ranks all eight players, and the column shows the shortest band of positions that together account for at least 80% of the outcomes. It's a fuller picture than the odds alone — a player can lead the table today, and even top it on expected points, yet still be most likely to finish second, because they only overhaul into first when they own the champion.