Richard pulls clear, intra-couple double-header settled

Yesterday’s evening intra-couple double-header gave one decisive result and one shared. Richard’s Switzerland beat Nichola’s Bosnia-Herzegovina 4-1 in Group B; in Group A, Tega’s Czechia drew 1-1 with Henry’s South Africa. Richard banks three more, Nichola, Tega and Henry each take one. Earlier, Henry’s Canada beat Sophie’s Qatar 6-0 - Henry’s biggest day so far, but a heavy hit on Sophie’s goal difference. Emily’s Colombia also won 3-1 over Nichola’s Uzbekistan.

This morning Richard’s Mexico edged Pete’s South Korea 1-0. Richard now leads the sweepstake on 19 points - a 10-point gap to second. Behind him, Tega, Henry, Nichola and Pete are locked together on nine, with Emily on eight and Sophie and Ella still in single figures.

Today brings two more games. Scotland v Morocco is Richard’s tier-5 against Tega’s tier-1. USA v Australia is Ella against Sophie - the sixth intra-couple match of the tournament, and the second for that household (Spain v Cape Verde on 15 June was the first).

A note from the sweepstake author: the 10-point lead is partly draw, partly luck. Argentina, Mexico and Switzerland all sit in the world top 20 by Elo, so the model expected Richard to be on about 15 points by now - the actual 19 is roughly four points above expectation, with Ghana’s 1-0 upset of Panama the single biggest contributor (worth +2.3 alone). Pre-tournament odds had him as joint-second favourite at 21%; he is now 27.5%. The author would like the family to know he holds no editorial influence over Python’s random number generator.