Tega and Pete climb the table, but the market still backs Richard

The evening of the 20th delivered two decisive results. Tega’s Germany beat Emily’s Ivory Coast 2-1, banking three points and sending Tega up to second. Then Pete’s Netherlands hammered Nichola’s Sweden 5-1 - a tier-1-over-tier-4 rout that lifts Pete to third and leaves Nichola’s goal difference at -3.

The table now reads: Richard 22, Tega 15, Pete 13, Emily 11, then Henry, Nichola and Ella all level on 9 (split on goal difference), with Sophie still on 6 and bottom on GD. Richard hasn’t kicked a ball since Paraguay’s win but stays four clear at the top.

Odds watch

The simulator (50,000 runs, latest Elo) makes Richard the clear favourite at ~3.05 (a 33% chance of topping the table), well ahead of Ella (6.05) and Nichola (7.17), whose prices lean on Spain and France - two of the joint World Cup favourites. Emily is the mover, shortening to 8.19 on the back of Brazil and Colombia.

The quirk this week: Tega and Pete climbed the table but drifted in the market - out to 23.65 and 12.55. A win you were already expected to get (Germany were nailed-on to qualify) adds little to your ceiling, and Richard’s and Emily’s surges soak up the title probability. Note too that mid-table teams’ deep-run odds (Morocco especially) wobble run-to-run until the official knockout bracket replaces the random draw

• so treat the longshots’ prices as noisy for now.