Richard still nine clear as the chasers scramble and the bracket lands

Richard remains untouched at the summit on 33, but the race for the places behind him turned over completely. Henry had the day of the round - his Senegal hammered Emily’s Iraq 5-0 and his Türkiye beat Ella’s USA 3-2 - hauling him out of the basement and right back into it. Pete climbed too, his Belgium thrashing Tega’s New Zealand 5-1, while Nichola’s France put four past Pete’s Norway (4-1) and Ella’s Spain edged Nichola’s Uruguay 1-0. The couples’ meetings cut both ways.

It leaves everything below Richard desperately tight: Emily 24, Pete 23, then Nichola and Ella level on 22, Henry 20, and Tega and Sophie both on 18. Six group matches still to play, but the shape of the table is set: one runaway leader and seven within six points of each other.

With the groups all but done, the Round of 32 has been drawn - and it is brutal on the couples. Three players land all-their-own ties: Henry’s South Africa meets his own Canada, Emily’s Brazil meets her own Japan, and Nichola’s France meets her own Sweden - each guaranteed a team in the last 16, but each forced to knock one of their own out. The cross-ties carry real weight too: Tega’s Germany v Richard’s Paraguay, Pete’s Netherlands v Tega’s Morocco, Ella’s USA v Nichola’s Bosnia, Sophie’s Australia v Ella’s Egypt, and the pick of the lot - Richard’s Argentina v Sophie’s Cape Verde - as the favourite begins his knockout run. First ball, 28 June.

Odds watch

The table says runaway; the market says coin-toss. With the heavy knockout multipliers now in view, the title is a three-way photo finish at the top: Richard ~5.1 (20%) on Argentina, Ella ~5.1 (20%) on Spain, and Nichola ~5.5 (18%) on France - all within a whisker. Henry’s big day vaulted his price in to ~8.3 (12%), the day’s biggest mover up, with Tega also bouncing back after Belgium aside. The pack behind - Pete, Emily, Tega and Sophie - sits clustered around 13. The story of the day is Richard: still nine points clear on the table, yet drifting in the title market (-7.6%), because his lead is built on cheap group points while the prize money sits in the rounds ahead - and that favours whoever still holds Spain, France and Argentina.