Groups done, the bracket drops - and Richard re-asserts as favourite

The group stage is over. Pete’s Congo DR beat Nichola’s Uzbekistan 3-1 to lock up second, Sophie’s Croatia saw off Richard’s Ghana 2-1, and Henry’s England brushed Tega’s Panama aside 2-0 to cap his late surge, with Emily and Sophie sharing a goalless Colombia-Portugal. The last two games then closed the books: Sophie’s Algeria drew Tega’s Austria 3-3, and Richard’s Argentina beat Emily’s Jordan 3-1 to finish a perfect three-from-three group.

The group points settled with Richard on 36, ten clear. But the knockouts change the maths: now the bracket is set, every team that reached the Round of 32 banks its +5 progression bonus - the tournament’s first knockout points. With three to five qualifiers apiece that lifts everyone and reshuffles the chase. The live table now reads Richard 61, Sophie 48, Pete 46, Emily 45, Henry 43, Ella 42, Nichola 37, Tega 34 - Sophie the big winner, vaulting to second on five teams through (level with Richard for the most). And the ladder only steepens from here: +10 for the last 16, +20 a quarter-final, doubling all the way to the cup.

And the Round of 32 is set. It is brutal on the couples: four players draw all-their-own ties - Henry’s South Africa v his Canada, Emily’s Brazil v her Japan, Nichola’s France v her Sweden, and Sophie’s Portugal v her Croatia - each guaranteed a team in the last 16, but each forced to knock one of their own out. The favourite gets a gentle opener: Richard’s Argentina v Sophie’s Cape Verde.

Odds watch

The big switch: with all sixteen ties public, the model has retired the random draw and loaded the real bracket - and the kind draw has firmed the favourites straight back up after a brief pre-bracket wobble. Richard is clear favourite again at ~3.64 (27.5%, +2.4pp), his Argentina handed Cape Verde, ahead of Ella ~4.4 (Spain, 23%) and Nichola ~5.2 (France, 19%)

• the latter despite that France-v-Sweden self-clash. Behind them the field stretches out again: Emily ~9.2, Henry ~11.9, then Pete, Sophie and Tega drifting (Tega out to ~53 on the longest price). The title board reads Argentina 24.8%, Spain 21.7%, France 19.4%. The “anyone’s game” of an hour ago was the draw being unknown; now it’s known, and it was good to the top three.