Penalties bite: Netherlands out, Paraguay and Morocco survive

It started with another all-their-own tie: Emily’s Brazil beat her own Japan 2-1 to reach the last 16, the +5 lifting Emily up to second on 50. Then the day turned on two penalty shootouts.

Germany and Paraguay finished 1-1, and Richard’s Paraguay won the shootout to edge out Tega’s Germany - another five points and Richard out to 66. The bigger blow landed in the other tie: Netherlands and Morocco also drew 1-1, and Tega’s Morocco won on penalties to knock out Pete’s Netherlands - one of the tournament’s genuine contenders, gone. A mixed afternoon for Tega (Germany out, Morocco through) and a brutal one for Pete.

The table: Richard 66, then Emily 50, Henry 48, Sophie 48, Pete 46, Ella 42, Tega 39 and Nichola 37. Still to come today: Nichola’s France v her own Sweden, and Emily’s Ivory Coast v Pete’s Norway.

Odds watch

The shootouts reshaped the market. Pete’s Netherlands going out is the story: his table position barely moved (the R32 points were already banked) but his price collapsed to ~45 (2.2%, -3.3pp) - a stark reminder that under this ladder the prize money sits with the contenders, and he just lost one. With the favourites all winning, the top firmed: Richard ~3.5 (28%, +6.1pp) on Argentina, Ella ~4.4 (Spain), Nichola ~5.3 (France) and Emily in to ~7.1 (+5.1pp) on Brazil’s run. Tega, despite Morocco’s survival, sits longest at ~83 - her hopes now ride on a single tier-4 team.