Sophie bows out as Spain and Belgium reach the quarters; Pete and Ella surge

Spare a thought for Sophie. Ella’s Spain beat her Portugal 1-0, a single second-half goal enough to send the last of her six teams home. She is the first player in the sweepstake to run out of teams entirely - Portugal, Croatia, Cape Verde, Australia, Algeria and Qatar all now spent - and she’s left marooned on 53 points with nothing more to play for. It’s the cruelty of the format laid bare: you can bank a respectable total and still find yourself, one quiet July evening, simply done. Condolences, Sophie. You’ll be back next time with a kinder draw.

For Ella the same goal was a springboard. Spain into the quarter-finals banks another +10 and lifts her to 67 and third on the table - and, as the odds below show, rather further than that.

The night’s other tie was a rout. Pete’s Belgium demolished Ella’s USA 4-1 to book their own quarter-final place, another +10 that carries Pete to 76 and second. Crucially it gives him two teams in the last eight - Belgium alongside his Norway - the sort of spread that keeps a challenge alive on more than one front. Ella loses the USA but, with Spain flying, barely feels it.

Richard still leads on 81, untroubled at the summit, and he has two teams out today with a chance to stretch it: his Argentina face Ella’s Egypt, and his Switzerland meet Emily’s Colombia. Win both and the gap could look daunting again.

The table: Richard 81, Pete 76, Ella 67, Henry 63, Emily 55, Sophie 53, Nichola 52, Tega 49.

The quarter-final bracket is taking shape and it’s crowded with family grudge matches: Nichola’s France v Tega’s Morocco, Ella’s Spain v Pete’s Belgium, and Pete’s Norway v Henry’s England.

Odds watch

A changing of the guard at the top. Ella is the new favourite at ~3.33 (30%), having vaulted past Richard on the strength of Spain, which the model now rates the single most likely champion (30%). Behind her it’s tight: Richard ~4.26 (23.5%) and Nichola ~4.42 (22.6%) are barely a whisker apart, their Argentina and France near-level on the title board (22.3% and 22.6%). Pete firms to ~17.5 - two quarter-finalists finally moving his price the right way, though Norway and Belgium remain outsiders under a ladder that rewards one deep run over two useful ones.

The round’s sharpest table-vs-market split is at the very top: Richard still leads the points table by five, yet sits second in the market, because the odds price who lifts the cup and Spain has edged ahead of his Argentina. And spare Sophie a second glance - sixth on points, but her price has vanished from the board entirely: 53 banked, 0% to win, the starkest reminder that this market values ceiling, not history. Deeper-round prices past the quarters still lean on a simulated draw, so treat the mid-tier title numbers as indicative until the bracket fully hardens.