Richard rides his luck to a guaranteed semi-finalist; Emily joins the sidelines

A huge day for Richard, and not one entirely built on merit. His Argentina beat Ella’s Egypt 3-2 in a proper end-to-end tie, fair and square. But his second win came the lucky way: Switzerland and Emily’s Colombia played out a goalless 0-0 and Switzerland squeaked through on penalties - a coin-flip of a result that flattered the Swiss and did Colombia few favours. Two teams into the quarter-finals, +20 to a commanding 101, and a lead stretched to twenty-five.

Sorry, Emily. Colombia were the better side across two hours and had nothing to show for it, and with them go her last hopes: like Sophie before her, she now has no teams left, stranded on 55. A goalless game lost on spot-kicks is the unkindest way to bow out, and she was on the wrong end of a lucky boy having a lucky night.

The twist is where it leaves the bracket. Richard drew both his surviving teams into the same quarter-final - Argentina v Switzerland - which means, however it goes, he is guaranteed a team in the semi-finals. One of his own knocks the other out; he wins either way. It’s the sort of luck that’s starting to look like a pattern.

Richard 101 now towers over the field. The table: Richard 101, Pete 76, Ella 67, Henry 63, Emily 55, Sophie 53, Nichola 52, Tega 49.

The quarter-final bracket is now complete, and it’s a family contest: Nichola’s France v Tega’s Morocco (first up, tomorrow), Ella’s Spain v Pete’s Belgium, Pete’s Norway v Henry’s England, and the all-Richard Argentina v Switzerland.

Odds watch

Despite the points landslide, Richard is still only second in the market. Ella remains favourite at ~3.36 (29.7%), her Spain the model’s likeliest champion, with Richard ~3.64 (27.4%) and Nichola ~4.16 (24.0%) close behind - a genuine three-way inside six points at the top. The reason the lead doesn’t translate is the usual one: the odds price who lifts the cup, and Spain, Argentina and France are near-level for that.

There is, though, a new structural quirk in Richard’s favour. Because his two teams meet in the quarters, the model has him a 100% certainty to own a semi-finalist (Argentina 77.7% to reach the four, Switzerland 22.3% - they add up, because one of them must). No one else has that guarantee. Pete firms to ~18.8 on his two quarter-finalists but stays an outsider, and Emily’s price has now vanished from the board alongside Sophie’s - two players banked in the fifties, both with nothing left to run. As ever, prices beyond the quarters still lean on a simulated draw, so read the mid-tier title numbers as indicative until the bracket hardens further.