Spain send Ella to the semis and the top of the market; Pete down to his last team

The favourite’s armband is being passed around like a parcel. Three days, three different names on top - and today it’s Ella’s. Her Spain beat Pete’s Belgium 2-1 to reach the semi-finals, a +20 that lifts her to 87 and second, and installs her as the outright favourite at the shortest price on the board. Nichola held it yesterday, Richard the day before; each strong team that banks a semi reshuffles the top.

It leaves the last four half-drawn and rather glamorous: Nichola’s France and Ella’s Spain are both through - the tournament’s two most-fancied sides, owned by the two players now leading the betting. The other two semi places are decided over the next two days.

The flip side was a quiet exit for Pete. Belgium’s run ends in the quarters, and it leaves him down to a single surviving team - Norway - who happen to be out today, against Henry’s England. Win-or-bust doesn’t quite cover it: it’s Pete’s last thread in the whole tournament, and Henry stands directly across it, one win from the semis himself.

Richard, meanwhile, sits serenely on top at 101 - fourteen clear - and does nothing at all today. His moment comes tomorrow, when Argentina play Switzerland: the all-his-own quarter-final that hands him a semi-finalist whoever wins.

The table: Richard 101, Ella 87, Pete 76, Nichola 72, Henry 63, Emily 55, Sophie 53, Tega 49. Today: Pete’s Norway v Henry’s England.

Odds watch

The armband changes hands again: Ella is favourite at ~2.75 (36.4%), Spain now the model’s clear most likely champion, ahead of Nichola ~3.32 (30.1%) and Richard ~4.52 (22.1%). The story keeps repeating - Richard leads the points table by fourteen and the projected finish, yet has drifted to third in the betting, because banking the trophy is what the odds reward and both Spain and France are now rated likelier to lift it than his Argentina. The day’s big drifter is Pete, out to ~47: with Belgium gone and only underdog Norway left, his price has stretched right out. And with the top two semi-finalists being the top two favourites, watch the semi-final draw closely - if France and Spain fall on the same side, one of Nichola or Ella is knocked out before the final, and the market will lurch again.