Spain reach the final and Ella hits the front; Nichola's France fall short

The first semi-final delivered a genuine changing of the guard. Ella’s Spain beat Nichola’s France 2-0 to reach the final, and the +40 for going all the way to the showpiece does something no result has managed in five weeks: it lifts Ella to 127 and top of the table, ahead of Richard at last.

For Nichola it’s a hard one. Her France were the favourite only a few days ago, and they leave the title race in the semi-finals - beaten by the very team that has chased them all week. There’s a small consolation still to play for: France drop into the third-place match, where a win would add a little more to her total. But the big prize is gone.

The headline, though, is at the summit. Richard has led this sweepstake from almost the first kick - and tonight, for the first time, he doesn’t. Ella 127, Richard 121: six points in it, with the difference being that Ella’s team is in the final and Richard’s is not.

Not yet, anyway. Because the second semi-final is Henry’s England against Richard’s Argentina, and it pulls Richard two ways at once. If England win it, we get the dream final - Spain against England, Ella against Henry - the one the whole family actually wants to watch. But it’s also the one result that doesn’t suit Richard: his own route runs the other way. If Argentina come through instead, he banks his own +40, leaps back above Ella to 161, and sets up a Spain-Argentina final with the sweepstake itself on the line. Heart says England; the table says Argentina. One match settles both.

The table: Ella 127, Richard 121, Henry 83, Pete 76, Nichola 72, Emily 55, Sophie 53, Tega 49. Next: England v Argentina.

Odds watch

The market has lurched, hard. Spain into the final makes Ella the runaway favourite at ~1.61 (62.2%, +31pp) - the single biggest one-day move of the tournament - with Spain now certain of a final and rated better than even-money for the trophy. Richard ~3.87 (25.8%) is the clear second, his Argentina still to play its semi, and Henry ~8.38 (11.9%) the outsider of the three. Nichola’s price has left the board: from around 27% to win the sweepstake yesterday to nothing today, her France beaten. And after five weeks of the table leader trailing in the betting, the divergence has finally closed the other way: Ella now leads the table, the projected finish and the market all at once. Whether she still does tomorrow night rests entirely on Argentina v England.