England's run ends against Richard's Argentina; the final is Ella v Richard

Well, that’s the heartbreaker. Henry’s England led at half-time and were an hour from the final - the Spain-England final the whole family wanted - and then it slipped away. Argentina came back to win 2-1, and there’s a cruel irony in who did it: it was Richard’s Argentina, the one team whose success meant England’s end. Heart said England; the table said Argentina. The table won.

For Henry it’s a cruel way to bow out of the title race. His England were excellent all tournament - group winners, past Norway, a goal up in the semi-final - and they’ll feel this one. They drop into the third-place match, where there’s still a little to play for, but the final was right there.

For Richard, it means the lead is his again. Argentina reaching the final banks +40, lifting him to 161 and back to the top, thirty-four clear of Ella. After a day in second, normal service resumes - just in time for the only match that now matters.

Because here it is, the finish the whole thing has been building towards: Spain against Argentina. Ella against Richard. The World Cup final, and the sweepstake, decided in one game. Whoever’s team lifts the trophy on the 19th wins it all - if Argentina win, Richard takes it; if Spain win, Ella leaps to 207 and the crown is hers. Everything, on ninety minutes (or more).

First, though, a consolation tie with a small prize: the third-place play-off on the 18th is Nichola’s France against Henry’s England - both beaten semi-finalists, both chasing the +20. For Nichola it’s the shot to leapfrog Pete into fourth; for Henry, a chance to end a fine run on a win.

The table: Richard 161, Ella 127, Henry 83, Pete 76, Nichola 72, Emily 55, Sophie 53, Tega 49. Next: France v England for third, then Spain v Argentina for everything.

Odds watch

It’s down to two. Ella stays favourite at ~1.72 (58.2%) - Spain rated the likelier of the two finalists - with Richard ~2.39 (41.8%, +16pp) the day’s big riser, Argentina into the final hauling him right back into contention. Everyone else is now at zero: Henry’s title hopes went with the semi-final, and the market is a straight two-horse race. And the tournament-long divergence gets its perfect final act - Richard leads the table by thirty-four, yet Ella is favourite, because the table rewards what’s banked and the market prices who wins on Sunday. Both are right until the whistle. One game settles which.