Spain win the World Cup and Ella wins the sweepstake; Richard runner-up

That’s the whole thing decided, and it went the way the market always thought it would. Ella’s Spain beat Richard’s Argentina 1-0 in the final to become World Champions - and the +80 for lifting the trophy carries Ella from 127 to 207, sweeping her past Richard and to the sweepstake title. After five weeks, one goal settled it.

Spare an enormous amount of thought for Richard. He led this sweepstake from almost the first group game to the final whistle - weeks on top, a thirty-four-point cushion into the last act, a guaranteed finalist, the works. And it still wasn’t quite enough, because the one prize that could overturn all of it - the trophy itself - went to the only rival close enough to use it. He finishes second on 161, a magnificent tournament undone by a single result. Gracious in defeat is the only option; nobody had a better five weeks and worse ninety minutes.

For Ella, it’s the perfect vindication of patience. Her Spain were the model’s favourite for the title almost throughout, which made her the sweepstake favourite even while she sat well behind on the table - the classic gap between who’s ahead and who’s most likely to win. She trusted the ceiling over the floor, and the ceiling came in. Champion, 207, and thoroughly deserved.

Behind the top two, the medals settled nicely too: Henry’s England took the bronze with that ten-goal play-off, finishing third on 103, and the rest of the table held its shape - Pete 4th, Nichola 5th, Emily 6th, Sophie 7th, Tega 8th.

The final table: Ella 207 (champion), Richard 161, Henry 103, Pete 76, Nichola 72, Emily 55, Sophie 53, Tega 49.

That’s the tournament. Forty-eight teams, eight players, six weeks, and a finish that came down to the last game of all. Thanks for playing, all of you - and congratulations, Ella.

Odds watch

One last reading, and it’s the vindication of the whole exercise. Ella went into the final the favourite (~1.83), and the favourite won - Spain the most likely champion, Ella the most likely winner, both delivering exactly as priced. It’s the design working as intended: the champion’s owner tops the table, the ~99% outcome the ladder is calibrated for. And it’s the tournament-long divergence resolved at the perfect moment - Richard led the points table wire to wire, but Ella led the market, and in the one match that turned points into a trophy, the market had the final word. Book closed: Ella 100%, everyone else nil. See you for the next one.