Against the odds: the tournament's over- and under-achievers

The last four is set and there’s a pause before the semi-finals, so here’s a good moment to look back. On opening day, the model had a firm view of how far each team would go. Some teams politely ignored it.

The overachievers

Top of the list, and comfortably: Pete’s Norway. On 14 June the model gave them a 7% chance of even reaching the quarter-finals, a 0.1% shot at the title - essentially off the board. They reached the quarters anyway, going out only to Henry’s England. And on the way they pulled off the single biggest result of the tournament: knocking Emily’s Brazil out in the last 16. A rank outsider sending home a title pick.

Two more ran well past their billing. Tega’s Morocco (a 38% quarter-final chance) not only made the last eight but put Pete’s Netherlands out in the round of 32 en route. And Richard’s Switzerland turned a 20% quarter-final chance into an actual quarter-final place. The four semi-finalists - France, Spain, England, Argentina - were all among the pre-tournament favourites, so they did roughly what was asked; the outsiders are the story.

The underachievers

Emily’s Brazil is the headline fall. Opening odds of around 22 to win it, a 21% chance of reaching the semis - and out in the last 16, to Norway, of all teams. The biggest name to go home early.

Tega’s Germany went even earlier: out in the round of 32 - the first knockout round - beaten by Richard’s Paraguay on penalties. A traditional power gone almost before the knockouts began. Sophie’s Portugal (a 21% semi-final chance) fell in the last 16 to Ella’s Spain, and Pete’s Netherlands (19%) went out in the round of 32 to Tega’s Morocco.

The owners’ angle

Pete’s tournament was a study in extremes: he owned the biggest overachiever and one of the biggest flops - Norway soaring, Netherlands sinking - his Norway even doing for Emily’s Brazil along the way. He still ends with no teams left and fourth, which tells you how fine the margins were. Tega had the mirror image: Morocco ran deep while Germany went early, the two roughly cancelling out at the foot of the table.

The quiet moral: these shocks shaped the standings as much as the favourites did. Norway’s run was most of what carried Pete into the top four; Brazil’s early exit stranded Emily; Germany’s collapse hurt Tega. The teams that did exactly what the odds asked are, fittingly, the four still standing.

Odds watch

Into the lull, the market sits as a four-way between the semi-finalists’ owners. Ella is favourite at ~3.09 (32.4%) on Spain, with Nichola ~3.72 (26.9%) and Richard ~3.98 (25.1%) close behind - Argentina reaching the last four pulled Richard up to third and closing - and Henry ~6.43 (15.6%) completing the set: Spain 32%, France 27%, Argentina 25%, England 16%. Everyone else is off the board. The long-running divergence still holds - Richard leads the points table by thirty-four and the projected finish, yet is only third favourite, because the market prices the trophy and three teams are rated near-level to lift it. The next move waits on the semi-final draw.