The form guide: where everyone lands, and the four matches that decide it

The last eight is locked in, the simulator has churned through fifty thousand tournaments, and it has opinions about where everyone finishes. Two players can already put their feet up. One is quietly cruising. One is a coin-flip between glory and the basement. Here’s the projected table, top to bottom, with the match that’ll settle each fate.

Richard — projected 1st (most likely 2nd). The tortoise of the piece. He leads on points, and thanks to the all-his-own Argentina v Switzerland (12 Jul) he is guaranteed a semi-finalist - one of his teams knocks the other out, and he wins either way. The lovely twist: the model still fancies him to finish second more often than first, because he only tops the final table if one of his teams actually lifts the cup. A commanding lead that, on its own, isn’t quite enough. Very on-brand.

Ella — projected 2nd (the bookies’ favourite). The hare to Richard’s tortoise. Her Spain is the single most likely champion, which makes her the shortest price in the market - but with less banked, she’s feast-or-famine. Spain v Belgium (10 Jul) is the springboard: clear it and she’s flying.

Henry — projected 3rd. England snuck into the last eight and Henry with them. His quarter-final is a straight family meeting: Pete’s Norway v Henry’s England (11 Jul). Winner climbs, loser almost certainly slides.

Pete — projected 4th. He has two teams in the quarters - Norway and Belgium - same as Richard, with one crucial difference: Richard’s pair meet each other, whereas Pete’s sit on opposite sides of the bracket, so they don’t cancel each other out. Which sounds great until you notice both are outsiders, and Belgium have to get past Ella’s Spain first. Two bites at the cherry across a busy weekend: Belgium v Spain (10 Jul) and Norway v England (11 Jul).

Nichola — projected ~4th, but honestly anywhere from 1st to 8th. The wild card of the whole thing. She owns France, joint-favourite for the trophy, yet has only banked 52 - so her range is comically wide. It all hinges on the tournament’s very first quarter-final, France v Morocco (9 Jul): win and she’s a genuine title contender, lose and she tumbles toward the bottom.

Emily — 6th. Sophie — 7th. Both certain. No teams left, nothing to play for, and - delightfully - nothing anyone can do about it. The maths has already sealed both placings: because France and Morocco meet each other (9 Jul), exactly one of Nichola/Tega must leapfrog the pair, which pins Emily to 6th and Sophie to 7th in every single simulation. Put your feet up, you two. You’ve earned the certainty.

Tega — most likely 8th, but not done yet. Marooned at the foot of the projection, and yet: Morocco are still alive. Her escape hatch is that same opening quarter-final - beat Nichola’s France (9 Jul) and she vaults off the bottom. One match, two players’ fates: it decides whether Nichola soars or Tega does.

The four matches, in order

• 9 Jul — Nichola’s France v Tega’s Morocco. The hinge. Sends one of them up and the other down, and quietly confirms Emily 6th / Sophie 7th either way.
• 10 Jul — Ella’s Spain v Pete’s Belgium. The favourite’s first real test; Pete’s outside shot.
• 11 Jul — Pete’s Norway v Henry’s England. A straight head-to-head between two mid-table rivals.
• 12 Jul — Richard’s Argentina v Richard’s Switzerland. The one where the leader cannot lose. Guaranteed semi-finalist, whatever the score.

Odds watch

The bracket being set has firmed things up front into a genuine three-way. Ella is favourite at ~3.36 (29.8%) on Spain’s title credentials, but Richard ~3.59 (27.8%) and Nichola ~4.19 (23.9%) are right on her heels - the title board reads Spain 29.8%, Argentina 25.9%, France 23.9%, barely six points covering the three. Henry (~8.30) is the clear fourth; Pete (~19.6) and Tega (~72) are the long shots, their teams alive but underdogs. And the neat table-vs-market split endures: Richard leads the points table and the projected finish, yet sits second in the betting, because the odds price who lifts the cup while the projected finish rewards his high floor. Two ways of being “top”, one calm man sitting near the top of both. The mid-tier prices will keep firming as the semi-final line-up resolves.